Impact de la guerre de 2025 entre le Pakistan et l'Inde sur l'île Maurice.

As two nuclear-armed neighbors (Pakistan and India) exchanged airstrikes and missile attacks, the global community watched with concern—not just for the geopolitical ramifications, but for the ripple effects on international trade and regional economies. Mauritius, already grappling with the economic fallout of the Ukraine–Russia war and the impact of newly imposed U.S. tariffs under Donald Trump’s administration, now faces yet another external shock. With strong trade ties to both India and Pakistan, this latest conflict threatens to strain supply chains, increase import costs, and pressure key sectors such as food security, healthcare, and energy.

The Trigger and Escalation of the 2025 India–Pakistan Conflict

On April 22, 2025, a terrorist attack in Baisaran Valley, Indian-administered Kashmir, resulted in the deaths of at least 26 Hindu tourists. The Resistance Front (TRF), linked to the Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility. India attributed the attack to Pakistan-backed militants.

In retaliation, India launched “Operation Sindoor” on May 7, targeting alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Punjab province. Utilizing Rafale jets equipped with SCALP missiles and AASM Hammer bombs, the strikes lasted 23 minutes and aimed at locations including Bahawalpur and Muridke.

Pakistan responded with drone and missile strikes on Indian cities, including Amritsar. India’s S-400 missile defense system reportedly intercepted these attacks. The escalation raised fears of a broader conflict, prompting diplomatic interventions.

While the geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan continue to escalate, their impact is not confined to the subcontinent. For Mauritius, the fallout is more than diplomatic—it’s economic. As the nation relies heavily on imports from both countries, the conflict threatens to disrupt vital supply chains and inflame trade vulnerabilities.

Key Statistics: Mauritius Imports from India and Pakistan

Mauritius is economically intertwined with both India and Pakistan, importing a significant range of goods from each country.

India is a major supplier of pharmaceuticals, textiles, machinery, vehicles, foodstuffs, and petroleum products to Mauritius.

Pakistan’s main exports to Mauritius are mineral fuels, cereals, textiles, pharmaceuticals, cotton, and vehicles.

The figures for India are sourced from the UN COMTRADE database for 2024. Pakistan’s figures are based on reported trade data for 2024.

This table highlights the key sectors and values, showing the significant reliance of Mauritius on both India and Pakistan for a range of essential imports.

Immediate Economic and Supply Chain Risks

The escalating India-Pakistan conflict poses multifaceted risks for Mauritius, given its economic reliance on both nations. Below is a detailed analysis of potential implications, supported by recent developments and trade data:

1. Food Security Threats
   • Rice Supplies: Mauritius imports 80% of its basmati rice from India et 20% from Pakistan. Prolonged conflict could disrupt shipments, especially if strategic ports like Mundra (India) are targeted.
   • Production Delays: Factories in conflict-adjacent regions have been instructed to turn off lights at night, potentially slowing production of goods like spices, dried grains, and canned vegetables.
2. Pharmaceutical and Fuel Shortages
   • India supplies critical pharmaceuticals et petroleum products, while Pakistan provides mineral fuels/oils ($25.18 million annually). Disruptions could strain healthcare and energy sectors.
3. Logistics and Cost Surges
   • Airspace closures and rerouted cargo via third countries may increase shipping costs and delays. War risk insurance premiums have risen from 0.05% to 1% of vessel value, further inflating import expenses.

Long-Term Economic Impacts

1. GDP Growth Erosion
   Regional instability could reduce Mauritius’s GDP growth by 2–3%, while conflict zones typically see 30–40% declines in foreign direct investment (FDI). This threatens projects like India-funded infrastructure.
2. Trade Agreement Vulnerabilities
   Le India-Mauritius CECPA (2021), which boosted bilateral trade to $851.13 million (2023–24), risks stagnation if India diverts resources to conflict management.
3. Price Volatility
   • Rice prices could spike if supply chains falter, disproportionately affecting low-income households.
   • Fuel and textiles (key imports from both nations) may also see inflationary pressures.

Sector-Specific Implications

Recent Developments (May 2025):

• As of mid-May, a fragile ceasefire has taken hold after four days of intense missile and drone exchanges between India and Pakistan, with U.S. diplomatic intervention reportedly playing a key role.

• Mauritian importers remain on high alert, watching for any escalation that could disrupt critical supply chains-especially if strategic ports like Mundra are affected. The business community is bracing for possible increases in shipping costs and insurance premiums, while the government is monitoring the situation closely.

• Experts warn that the traditional “red lines” between India and Pakistan have eroded, raising the risk of renewed conflict and long-term instability in the region. 

• Meanwhile, India’s decision to suspend parts of the Indus Waters Treaty marks a new and potentially destabilizing tactic in the conflict.

Conclusion

The conflict underscores Mauritius’s vulnerability to external shocks in a globalized economy. While immediate disruptions remain localized, long-term instability could force a costly realignment of trade networks. Proactive and urgent diversification and diplomatic agility will be crucial to safeguarding economic stability.